read the
wind forecast
How to read wind forecasts on the Internet?
It's a question we're often asked, and that's why we've decided to write an article to answer it!
Knowing how to read forecasts is essential if you want to be fully autonomous in your kitesurfing, and above all if you want to sail safely. But when you first come across a forecast site, deciphering the information can be a real headache! Don't panic, we've all been there 😉
Before we get started, we'd like to warn you that this article won't aim to go into the minutest details of the various sites and apps, as there are mountains of analyzable data on each of them. Our ambition is simply to give you the basics that will enable you to read the most important information so that you can plan your next session in complete safety.
In short, the aim is to keep things simple and concise.
It's also important to remember that these sites and applications provide PREDICTIONS. So we can never be 100% sure that the wind will be as forecast. But that's the game, my poor Lucette 😉
Let's start with the basics!
For the more novice among you, let's take a brief look at some information that might be useful:
On forecast sites, wind speed is expressed in "knots" (kn). Thus, 1 knot = 1.85km/h. To give you a quick idea of the scale, 15kn = 27.8km/h, 20kn = 37km/h, and 30kn = 55.5km/h (that's where it starts, folks 😉 ).
A few terms about wind directions now. Even if they won't be mentioned on the various sites, chances are you'll hear them quickly in discussions with other kiteboarders, so we might as well explain them to you (see photo below for illustration):
- An "onshore" wind comes from the open sea and blows towards the land- An "offshore" wind comes from the land and blows towards the open sea- A "sideshore" wind blows parallel to the beach- So, for safety reasons, we advise you not to sail with an offshore wind, because if you do, you'll be blown out to sea. NOT GOOD!
That reminder out of the way, we can now get to the heart of the matter!
There are many sites where you can read forecasts, but to keep things simple, we're going to tell you about the most widely used: Windguru.
First of all, you need to know that Windguru provides forecasts "by spot". When searching on the Internet, you therefore need to specify which one ("Windguru Houlgate" or "Windguru La Grande Motte" for example).
Windguru is a very comprehensive site and presents many "forecast models" for each spot (GFS, Arome, Icon, WRF etc...). To be as efficient as possible, we'll concentrate on two models which, between them, give a good general idea of the forecasts:
- The WG model, which is the first one shown at the top. It's a synthesis by Windguru of all the models
- The Arome model, which gives a shorter-term vision (over the next two days), but has the advantage of being more precise.
Now, how do we decipher all this? Let's take an example: a Windguru forecast looks like this:
But what data should we be looking at?
The most important data to take into account, apart from the first 3 lines which are simply the date and times of day, are the following:
- The first line of the forecast shows the wind speed (expressed in knots). This is the "established" wind speed, a sort of "average speed". Here, for Monday November 9 at 3pm, the wind will blow at an average of 9 knots.
- Next, you can read the gust speed (a gust is a sudden, fleeting strengthening of the wind, resulting in a brief, sudden increase in wind speed), also expressed in knots. It's very important to take this into account, as strong gusts can be dangerous when sailing. So, if the wind is forecast to be very gusty, you need to be cautious and advise your level of sailing. To give a concrete example, if the average speed is 20 knots, a 70kg man of average ability will generally sail in 9m2. But if the gusts are up to 40 kts, then there's a danger, because a 9m2 is too big a sail to handle such a wind force with this size of sail. So always take gust speeds into account when choosing your glider!
- Wind direction: VERY important information! Here, the arrow points to the direction in which the wind is blowing. So if the arrow points to the right, the wind is coming from the west, and blowing east. Here's a small example: if we take the Le Touquet spot, a westerly wind, which corresponds to an arrow pointing to the right, indicates an onshore wind (blowing from the open sea towards land).
- Next, the lines "waves", "wave period" and "wave direction" are not yet crucial to understand in detail. Just be aware that if waves are too big on the first "wave" line (over 1.5m), this can make navigation complicated, and even dangerous for beginners.
- For temperature, it's the air temperature and not the water temperature that is announced. For water temperature, you'll have to check another site 😊 Then, it's up to you to decide when you want to get out your gloves, booties and balaclavas 😉
- Then, cloud cover is not essential information
- Precipitation: it's important to check whether it's going to rain a lot, because remember that in kitesurfing, unlike in surfing for example, you're moving at a speed of between 20 and 30km/h. If it's raining, it's crazy. If it's raining, it'll whip your face and impair your vision, so take precautions!
- Finally, the Windguru rating isn't very important either.
Here's how to decipher a Windguru forecast table. As mentioned above, you can also complement this model with a more precise one, such as the "Arome" model, which will look like this (among other things, with more time slots displayed):
If the Arome model isn't available (this sometimes happens depending on the spots), choose a model which, like Arome, gives a more short-term view (I'm writing this article on a Monday morning, so I have a 2-day view), but which will be more accurate and reliable in the forecasts.
Another important piece of data that can be displayed by Windguru (but isn't originally) is the tides:
To display it, click on "Tides", then "Show tides" (see image above).
The tide is high when the curve is at its highest point (11:20 in this example), and conversely it is low at its lowest point (18:10). Logically, the tide is rising when the curve is rising, and vice versa.
I mention the tide here because for some spots it is very important to take it into account. In fact, tides can radically change sailing conditions. Here are just a few concrete examples:
The beach can sometimes disappear completely when the tide is high, leaving no room to rig your kite on the sand.
The wind can vary (strengthen, weaken or even change direction slightly) depending on the tide.
Certain currents may appear or disappear
However, tidal variations have different consequences for different spots. So it's important to find out about the spot in advance from those who already know it!
Now you've got the basics for reading the wind forecast on your spot!
A few final reminders!
A few final reminders for those of you who are new to the subject before we end this article:
Avoid sailing in offshore conditions, as you could be swept out to sea in the event of a problem.
If the wind is too gusty, opt for safety and don't go sailing if you're not sure of yourself.
If you have any doubts about a particular spot, whether it's about wind direction, tides, safety, etc., make sure you ask people who know the spot well! Through acquaintances, Facebook groups, locals or by contacting us directly! We'll be happy to help 😊
If you're in any doubt about where to sail when you arrive on the spot, it's best to go where there are already people sailing. That way, you're less likely to make a mistake!
That's all from us! We hope this article was able to help you, and of course if you have any other questions don't hesitate to contact us directly!
PS: once you're comfortable with Windguru and the various information provided, a good complement to the forecast is the siteWindy. It is, among other things, very practical visually speaking 😉
Stay Tuned and Keep Riding
The Ridery